The industry believes that taking into account the higher base of electricity consumption in the same period of last year, the low growth rate of electricity consumption should not be overly pessimistic. The economic situation is not optimistic is already the industry's general awareness, from the National Energy Bureau recently released July full Social power consumption can also be seen. However, industry researchers also believe that although the electricity consumption data conveys the signal that the economy is still decelerating, in terms of sub-items, the end of the downward trend in the growth rate of heavy-industry electricity consumption and the recovery in the growth of electricity consumption of the residents are also an issue. The end of the steady signs.
Data show that in July the country’s total social power consumption was 455.6 billion kWh, an increase of 4.5% year-on-year. From January to July, the country’s entire society used 2833.2 billion kWh of electricity, an increase of 5.4% year-on-year.
As one of the leading indicators of the macro economy, the growth rate of electricity consumption in the society as a whole has continued to decline since last year, confirming the continued slowdown in economic growth. Longzhong Information Research analysts believe that the electricity consumption data in July still does not reflect the signs of economic improvement. And in July, the peak of summer electricity consumption, the seasonal effect is very obvious. The second industry, which contributed 75% to the growth rate of electricity consumption in the entire society, used 337.5 billion kWh of electricity in July, an increase of only 3.1% year-on-year, which was lower than the 3.3% increase in June. Taking a comprehensive look at the electricity consumption data in July, the relatively weak economic trend continues, and the downward pressure on the Chinese economy in the third quarter cannot be ignored.
However, industry researchers said that from the data of electricity consumption in the entire society in recent months, the growth rate started to stabilize at a low level, and the growth rate of electricity consumption in the entire society from May to July was basically maintained at the level of 4% to 5%, and considering The high base of electricity consumption in the same period last year should not be too pessimistic about the low growth rate of electricity consumption.
The Huarong Securities Research Report also stated that the electricity consumption data transmitted signals that the economy is still decelerating. However, the end of the decline in the growth rate of heavy-industry electricity consumption and the increase in the growth of residential electricity consumption are also signs that the economy is stabilizing.
From the same year-on-year relationship between electricity consumption and GDP, the growth rate of electricity consumption fluctuates around the GDP growth rate. From the comparison of industrial electricity consumption and industrial added value, the increase in electricity consumption is lower than the increase in industrial added value, but the trends are basically similar. In July, the industrial electricity consumption was 334.4 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 3.21%, a deceleration of 0.12 percentage points, and the growth rate fell for two consecutive months. The growth rate of industrial added value also dropped for two consecutive months. In July, the industrial added value increased by 9.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 0.3%. The year-on-year decline in industrial electricity consumption shows that production is still slowing. However, the decline is narrowing. Moreover, it is worth noting that heavy industry electricity consumption is 280.1 billion kwh, which is an increase of 2.65% year-on-year, and the growth rate is basically the same as last month.
In addition, the data show that the urban and rural residents' electricity consumption was 52.1 billion kWh, an increase of 9.21% year-on-year, an increase of 4.19 percentage points, and a change in the growth rate from March to June. Huarong Securities researcher said that the electricity consumption of urban and rural residents reflects consumer demand. The increase in the growth of electricity consumption by residents has reflected the resumption of consumer demand.
Data show that in July the country’s total social power consumption was 455.6 billion kWh, an increase of 4.5% year-on-year. From January to July, the country’s entire society used 2833.2 billion kWh of electricity, an increase of 5.4% year-on-year.
As one of the leading indicators of the macro economy, the growth rate of electricity consumption in the society as a whole has continued to decline since last year, confirming the continued slowdown in economic growth. Longzhong Information Research analysts believe that the electricity consumption data in July still does not reflect the signs of economic improvement. And in July, the peak of summer electricity consumption, the seasonal effect is very obvious. The second industry, which contributed 75% to the growth rate of electricity consumption in the entire society, used 337.5 billion kWh of electricity in July, an increase of only 3.1% year-on-year, which was lower than the 3.3% increase in June. Taking a comprehensive look at the electricity consumption data in July, the relatively weak economic trend continues, and the downward pressure on the Chinese economy in the third quarter cannot be ignored.
However, industry researchers said that from the data of electricity consumption in the entire society in recent months, the growth rate started to stabilize at a low level, and the growth rate of electricity consumption in the entire society from May to July was basically maintained at the level of 4% to 5%, and considering The high base of electricity consumption in the same period last year should not be too pessimistic about the low growth rate of electricity consumption.
The Huarong Securities Research Report also stated that the electricity consumption data transmitted signals that the economy is still decelerating. However, the end of the decline in the growth rate of heavy-industry electricity consumption and the increase in the growth of residential electricity consumption are also signs that the economy is stabilizing.
From the same year-on-year relationship between electricity consumption and GDP, the growth rate of electricity consumption fluctuates around the GDP growth rate. From the comparison of industrial electricity consumption and industrial added value, the increase in electricity consumption is lower than the increase in industrial added value, but the trends are basically similar. In July, the industrial electricity consumption was 334.4 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 3.21%, a deceleration of 0.12 percentage points, and the growth rate fell for two consecutive months. The growth rate of industrial added value also dropped for two consecutive months. In July, the industrial added value increased by 9.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 0.3%. The year-on-year decline in industrial electricity consumption shows that production is still slowing. However, the decline is narrowing. Moreover, it is worth noting that heavy industry electricity consumption is 280.1 billion kwh, which is an increase of 2.65% year-on-year, and the growth rate is basically the same as last month.
In addition, the data show that the urban and rural residents' electricity consumption was 52.1 billion kWh, an increase of 9.21% year-on-year, an increase of 4.19 percentage points, and a change in the growth rate from March to June. Huarong Securities researcher said that the electricity consumption of urban and rural residents reflects consumer demand. The increase in the growth of electricity consumption by residents has reflected the resumption of consumer demand.
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