The reporter learned from the State Grid Corporation of China yesterday that according to the latest forecast of the State Grid, the supply and demand of electricity will become more severe in 2012, and the maximum electricity consumption gap in the national grid region will reach 50 million kilowatts. The gap in North China reached 10 million kilowatts, 25 million kilowatts in East China and 14 million kilowatts in Central China.
In an interview with reporters, Bai Jianhua, deputy chief economist of the State Grid Energy Research Institute, said on the 1st that the situation in the future depends on the approval and construction progress of UHV cross-regional power grid construction projects and supporting power projects. If it cannot be successfully completed and put into production, the scope of power shortage It will be expanded and the supply and demand of electricity will become more intense.
The current power shortage of 28 million kilowatts this winter For the current power supply and demand situation, State Grid Corporation's basic judgment is: "very tense."
State Grid Corporation officials said that this year is the most intense year of power supply and demand in recent years, the total electricity gap may exceed 2004. It is expected that during the summer peak season this year, the supply and demand situation of the company's operating regions will be very tight, and severe shortage of electricity will occur in some regions. According to preliminary analysis, if the supply of coal continues to be the current situation, the incoming water is at a normal level, and there will be no abnormally high-temperature weather, the company's operating area power gap will reach about 30 million kilowatts, of which the power gaps in North China, East China, and Central China Power Grids are respectively 700, 1700, 6 million kilowatts. In the provincial power grid, 10 power grids such as Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan, Hebei-Henan, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui, Hunan, Henan, Jiangxi, and Chongqing will have a tight supply and demand situation.
If the contradiction between the supply and demand of thermal coal is further aggravated, and the incoming water is relatively dry and there is an abnormally high temperature, the power gap in the operating area of ​​the State Grid Corporation will reach about 40 million kilowatts. The power gaps in North China, East China, and Central China Power Grids will reach 800, 2000, and 12 million kilowatts respectively.
For the supply and demand of winter power during winter this year, State Grid Corporation believes that this year from November to January next year will need 102 million kwh electricity, an increase of 11.5%. The maximum power gap reached 28 million kilowatts, 4 million kilowatts in North China, 11 million kilowatts in East China, and 13 million kilowatts in Central China. In the provincial power grid, the nine regions of Beijing, Tianjin, Tangshan, Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Hubei, Henan, Hunan, Jiangxi, and Chongqing will be very tense.
Bai Jianhua believes that the power supply and demand situation will depend on the approval and construction progress of UHV cross-regional power grid construction projects and supporting power projects. “If the Xi’an-Nanjing, Mengxi (Shaanxi)-Changsha, Xiluodu-Zhexi, and Hami-Zhengzhou four UHV lines are completed and put into operation, they will basically solve the tense situation. If not, the power gap will expand and the power supply and demand will increase. tension."
"Shiwo" scale and power gap is quite equal to Bai Jianhua, said that the balance of power development on the ground can not meet the economic and social development of electricity demand. "At present, the surplus power of the northeast and northwest grids is 27 million kilowatts, which is equivalent to the eastern electricity gap. Because there is no transmission channel, it is difficult to support the east, causing a large number of idle installations in the northeast and northwest and tension and supply and demand of the eastern power coexist."
“At the same time, coal power price distortions have led to a prominent contradiction in power coal. There have even been cases where coal-fired power plants prefer to sell coal and they are reluctant to generate electricity.†Bai Jianhua said, “The slowdown in the pace of construction of thermal power has also resulted in inadequate power supply capacity. 2010 Thermal power installation growth rate was 10.2%, which was far lower than 20.6% in 2006. It was also 2 percentage points lower than the growth in electricity demand. In addition, the lack of hydropower output was also an important reason for the fact that the precipitation in the eastern and central regions was less than 25% in the first quarter. Electricity demand has grown rapidly."
State Grid Corporation judges that from a national point of view, due to the continuous increase in the price of thermal coal, the willingness of power generation companies to reduce power generation, coal-mining shutdowns, power generation output decline, and unplanned outages have increased significantly. At the same time, due to a variety of factors, grid planning cannot be implemented in a timely manner. In particular, the large-scale, long-distance, and high-efficiency transmission channel construction from the energy base to the load center lags behind, resulting in insufficient transmission capacity across regions. The reasons for power shortages are gradually changing from “single supply of coal†to single factors such as “supply shortage of power coal and inadequate power generation in local areas, insufficient capacity for trans-regional power grid transmission,†and are difficult to change in the short term.
State Grid will promote UHV approval The State Grid Corporation stated that in the short term, the State Grid will meticulously organize cross-district electricity support, maximise the need for electricity during key periods in key regions, actively conduct demand-side management, and strictly control the two high-tech enterprises.
The medium and long-term measures will accelerate the process of approval and construction of UHV grid projects and improve the ability of the grid to optimize the allocation of resources. “We will strive to approve the Ximeng-Nanjing, Xiluodu-Zhexi UHV lines in the first half of the year, and approve the lines of Mengxi-Changsha, Jingmen-Nanchang, Jingbian-Lianyungang (601008), and Hami-Zhengzhou during the year, and strive to put into operation in 2013. A person from the State Grid Corporation stated.
Bai Jianhua disclosed that "at present, the Hami-Zhengzhou and Ximeng-Nanjing UHV lines have already carried out preliminary work and are awaiting state approval."
In an interview with reporters, Bai Jianhua, deputy chief economist of the State Grid Energy Research Institute, said on the 1st that the situation in the future depends on the approval and construction progress of UHV cross-regional power grid construction projects and supporting power projects. If it cannot be successfully completed and put into production, the scope of power shortage It will be expanded and the supply and demand of electricity will become more intense.
The current power shortage of 28 million kilowatts this winter For the current power supply and demand situation, State Grid Corporation's basic judgment is: "very tense."
State Grid Corporation officials said that this year is the most intense year of power supply and demand in recent years, the total electricity gap may exceed 2004. It is expected that during the summer peak season this year, the supply and demand situation of the company's operating regions will be very tight, and severe shortage of electricity will occur in some regions. According to preliminary analysis, if the supply of coal continues to be the current situation, the incoming water is at a normal level, and there will be no abnormally high-temperature weather, the company's operating area power gap will reach about 30 million kilowatts, of which the power gaps in North China, East China, and Central China Power Grids are respectively 700, 1700, 6 million kilowatts. In the provincial power grid, 10 power grids such as Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan, Hebei-Henan, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui, Hunan, Henan, Jiangxi, and Chongqing will have a tight supply and demand situation.
If the contradiction between the supply and demand of thermal coal is further aggravated, and the incoming water is relatively dry and there is an abnormally high temperature, the power gap in the operating area of ​​the State Grid Corporation will reach about 40 million kilowatts. The power gaps in North China, East China, and Central China Power Grids will reach 800, 2000, and 12 million kilowatts respectively.
For the supply and demand of winter power during winter this year, State Grid Corporation believes that this year from November to January next year will need 102 million kwh electricity, an increase of 11.5%. The maximum power gap reached 28 million kilowatts, 4 million kilowatts in North China, 11 million kilowatts in East China, and 13 million kilowatts in Central China. In the provincial power grid, the nine regions of Beijing, Tianjin, Tangshan, Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Hubei, Henan, Hunan, Jiangxi, and Chongqing will be very tense.
Bai Jianhua believes that the power supply and demand situation will depend on the approval and construction progress of UHV cross-regional power grid construction projects and supporting power projects. “If the Xi’an-Nanjing, Mengxi (Shaanxi)-Changsha, Xiluodu-Zhexi, and Hami-Zhengzhou four UHV lines are completed and put into operation, they will basically solve the tense situation. If not, the power gap will expand and the power supply and demand will increase. tension."
"Shiwo" scale and power gap is quite equal to Bai Jianhua, said that the balance of power development on the ground can not meet the economic and social development of electricity demand. "At present, the surplus power of the northeast and northwest grids is 27 million kilowatts, which is equivalent to the eastern electricity gap. Because there is no transmission channel, it is difficult to support the east, causing a large number of idle installations in the northeast and northwest and tension and supply and demand of the eastern power coexist."
“At the same time, coal power price distortions have led to a prominent contradiction in power coal. There have even been cases where coal-fired power plants prefer to sell coal and they are reluctant to generate electricity.†Bai Jianhua said, “The slowdown in the pace of construction of thermal power has also resulted in inadequate power supply capacity. 2010 Thermal power installation growth rate was 10.2%, which was far lower than 20.6% in 2006. It was also 2 percentage points lower than the growth in electricity demand. In addition, the lack of hydropower output was also an important reason for the fact that the precipitation in the eastern and central regions was less than 25% in the first quarter. Electricity demand has grown rapidly."
State Grid Corporation judges that from a national point of view, due to the continuous increase in the price of thermal coal, the willingness of power generation companies to reduce power generation, coal-mining shutdowns, power generation output decline, and unplanned outages have increased significantly. At the same time, due to a variety of factors, grid planning cannot be implemented in a timely manner. In particular, the large-scale, long-distance, and high-efficiency transmission channel construction from the energy base to the load center lags behind, resulting in insufficient transmission capacity across regions. The reasons for power shortages are gradually changing from “single supply of coal†to single factors such as “supply shortage of power coal and inadequate power generation in local areas, insufficient capacity for trans-regional power grid transmission,†and are difficult to change in the short term.
State Grid will promote UHV approval The State Grid Corporation stated that in the short term, the State Grid will meticulously organize cross-district electricity support, maximise the need for electricity during key periods in key regions, actively conduct demand-side management, and strictly control the two high-tech enterprises.
The medium and long-term measures will accelerate the process of approval and construction of UHV grid projects and improve the ability of the grid to optimize the allocation of resources. “We will strive to approve the Ximeng-Nanjing, Xiluodu-Zhexi UHV lines in the first half of the year, and approve the lines of Mengxi-Changsha, Jingmen-Nanchang, Jingbian-Lianyungang (601008), and Hami-Zhengzhou during the year, and strive to put into operation in 2013. A person from the State Grid Corporation stated.
Bai Jianhua disclosed that "at present, the Hami-Zhengzhou and Ximeng-Nanjing UHV lines have already carried out preliminary work and are awaiting state approval."
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