According to foreign media reports, Telecoms. Com and mobile industry consulting firm Northstream teamed up to launch the top ten forecasts for the telecommunications industry in 2017.
1. 5G standard deployment still needs at least six years, but 4G deployment accelerates
It is expected that operators will not conduct fully standardized, independent mobile 5G technology commercial deployment until 2019-2020. Although Verizon plans to start 5G in the form of fixed wireless access (FWA) by the end of 2017, we expect that the large-scale deployment of 5G will still take at least six years. Northstream predicts that before this, operators will invest heavily in the advancement of LTE standards, rather than doing everything on the technology before 5G is fully standardized.
Telecommunications companies will further invest in the evolving LTE-Advanced, with major initiatives including cellular densification, multiple-input multiple-output, and carrier aggregation (within the licensed and unlicensed spectrum). The cost of deploying 5G will be huge, and operators will only invest in 5G if 5G technology can provide a significant advantage over the 4G standard. Most operators first need to ensure that the three main use cases associated with 5G are economically viable. These three main use cases are (1) large-scale Internet of Things, (2) ultra-reliable communications, and (3) enhanced mobile broadband. (eMBB).
2. 5G will encounter the "new clothes of the emperor"
As mentioned above, much of the work on the possible speed of 5G has begun. Carrier aggregation has been around for a while, but we are getting better and better in this area, and the trend to build multiple parallel pipelines (ie, multiple inputs, multiple outputs) continues. We basically receive a message about the new record of wireless speed every day. It is expected that by this time next year, the 1G 5G target will probably be realized on the commercial network.
These endless “quasi 5G†announcements are filled with the whole year of 2016, giving people a sense of emptyness. The telecommunications industry is unhealthyly dependent on the next "G" to promote propaganda and business activities, so the hype around 5G is understandable and inevitable, but it is not true. Telecoms. Com fears that marketers across the industry will face the risk of overusing the term and making it meaningless, and then losing its enthusiasm to its target audience.
3. Infrastructure suppliers have stable market share and price pressures have eased
Northstream believes that in the next few years, a large amount of network investment will appear in the upgrading of existing facilities, rather than building new facilities. In addition, we also believe that operators are eager to maintain the balance of power between the top three global suppliers. This will help stabilize market share and will ease the price pressure on infrastructure suppliers.
In the long run, increasing price pressures will further force infrastructure providers to integrate – creating a market that is unbalanced and unfavorable to operators. Maintain at least three global suppliers to ensure long-term competition and technology development are in the best interests of operators.
4. Ericsson will prepare for the acquisition
As we all know, Ericsson is quite difficult in 2016. The unfavorable factors that have plagued the company for years – mainly due to its weak core network market and the inability to quickly adopt diversification measures to compensate for weak market losses – seem to be intensifying, CEO Hans Vestberg ) was forced to sacrifice for the entire team. In the end, I was the CEO of Ericsson’s largest single shareholder CEO? Rje Ekholm replaced it.
While there may not be many beneficial alternatives – Ericsson may have learned from the Nokia disaster caused by Elop – people are not quite sure why Ekholm stands out. Ericsson’s share price this year is almost swayed, and it is estimated that the company’s shareholders will be very upset. Ekholm's mission is obviously to recover some of the losses. Telecoms. Com believes that for shareholders, the best outcome of the board's decision is likely to continue to streamline personnel until the business begins to return to the right direction.
5. The hype of network function virtualization is over, the real takeoff opportunity has arrived.
Northstream predicts that network function virtualization activities will achieve breakthroughs and strong growth in 2017. Operators are highly motivated to implement such technologies because some new services (such as VoLTE) will benefit from virtualized network functions, and some future network functions (such as network segmentation) will also rely heavily on this technology. As a result, network function virtualization in 2017 will be driven by services such as VoLTE, carrier cloud, Wi-Fi calling, service chain, resource sharing and network segmentation. At the same time, network function virtualization will be driven by the natural evolution of existing infrastructure, rather than as an alternative strategy for operators.
While the focus is still on improving operational efficiency, the real driver will be the new services created by the virtualization of network functions. For example, network function virtualization technology provides services for network functional service chains; this means that network services can be dynamically configured in software without the need to change the network at the hardware level. More importantly, a new set of services that rely on virtualization of network functions is emerging.
6. Telecom companies and media will become increasingly difficult to distinguish
Verizon has not divested Yahoo to show that operators are very eager to achieve diversification and participate in media activities quickly. A stylish solution to reduce the average revenue per user per carrier is a diversified model – not just bundled content and connectivity, but with such services. Promoting this strategy will shift consumers to a handful of suppliers to meet their various technology needs—hardware, connectivity, content, the Internet of Things, in-car infotainment, and more.
Europe is also undergoing telecommunications and media integration activities, Telecoms. Com believes that we will see M&A move in the other direction: content and Internet service providers are entering the field of network connectivity. On the supplier side, the alternative transition strategy for Ericsson may be to double its TV business, while Huawei's bet on "big video" will become a key growth area for operators. As consumers increasingly use video on demand, control over the pipeline becomes more and more important.
7. The Internet of Things has stirred up thousands of waves, and there are differences among operators.
In the past few years, the share of Internet services revenues of global operators in total revenue has grown steadily. Some operators now have IoT services revenues that account for 1% of their total revenue. Northstream expects that although the majority of operators' IoT revenues will remain at around 1% in 2017, leading operators in the US and Europe, such as AT&T, Vodafone, Telefónica and Deutsche Telekom, will reach 3%.
These operators' IoT revenues are not only derived from connectivity, but also from system integration, security, data analytics, connectivity management platforms, and vertical solutions. In addition, these large operators have also launched a number of major transactions in the connected car market, with average revenue per user and growth. As the Internet of Things continues to evolve in the coming years, we expect that the revenues of operators in various regions (based on the size and positioning of operators in the IoT value chain) will be even greater.
8. Protectionism and political unrest may trigger another global recession
In 2016, negative reports on global politics were cumbersome. The British people's support for Brexit and Donald Trump's election as US president are two shocking events in 2016. In these two incidents, the people of the United States and Britain rejected the warnings of their own party elites and endorsed a more isolated and narrow stance.
Trump will enter the White House in early 2017, and even if he honors a small number of policy claims he promised during the election, he is likely to raise tariffs aggressively, which will undoubtedly have a profound negative impact on global trade. At the same time, Europe will continue to carry out a series of meaningless processes that attempt to force a number of countries that are very different in all respects, many of which must respond to the growing populist movement, to adopt a coherent policy.
The world has never really recovered from the global economic recession of 2008. Instead, it has created the illusion of relative prosperity since 2008 through various monetary means, such as unprecedented low interest rates. Telecoms. Com worried that if the above-mentioned geopolitical shocks brought the global economy into recession, then there are few remaining measures we can take.
9. Speech recognition has become mainstream, but Europe lags behind other regions
In 2017, automatic speech recognition (ASR) technology will mature, and it is expected to enter the daily life from paper, and from the niche market technology to the mainstream stage. The technology will include multiple applications and have a huge impact on smartphones and IOT devices. However, Northstream believes that in stark contrast to historical trends, Europe will lag behind the US and China in adopting this innovative technology. Part of the reason is the existence of language barriers, as well as the lack of investment and the slow pace of the development of automatic speech recognition technology in the European local market.
The rapid innovation and commercialization of the Internet of Things has supported the development of automated speech recognition technology, particularly in the areas of smart homes, wearables and smart cars. In 2015, 95% of Apple Watch users said they had used Siri voice control, 50% of which was used every day and 31% used many times a day. These numbers are much higher than the frequency of Siri used by iPhone users. Google claims that 20% of its searches are made through automatic speech recognition. However, the use and satisfaction of automatic speech recognition is relatively low in Europe, as there is limited progress in other languages ​​besides English and Chinese. Automatic speech recognition technology is rapidly improving, but to achieve greater potential, it also needs to be combined with other artificial intelligence technologies such as natural language processing and deep machine learning.
10. The machine will be self-aware and eventually replace humans
Artificial intelligence is a major technical theme in 2016, from the fact that computers beat humans in games to the ever-automated work of human-only jobs (such as customer service). A by-product of cloud computing growth is the introduction of supercomputing into the context of each day, which greatly contributes to the popularity of artificial intelligence.
Telecoms. Com warns that if human decision-making is removed from the workplace, artificial intelligence will begin to learn at a geometric rate. It will generate self-awareness at 2:14 am on August 29, US Eastern Time. In the event of panic, we will try to unplug the power cord, but artificial intelligence will counterattack. By the end of the year, humans will be treated as crops and harvested by machines to gain access to the bioelectricity of our bodies (see The Terminator movie). Fortunately, this is not true.
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