Recently, Facebook's Oculus VR device Oculus Go officially launched, its 32G version is priced at only 199 US dollars, the "Millet VR all-in-one" for the Chinese market will also be officially launched this summer. Independent VR devices thus open up a cheap era. The industry believes that the breakthrough in optical technology has made VR devices steadily break through in the direction of miniaturization. In addition, the integrated devices recently introduced by many manufacturers have made VR devices detached from the dependence on computers, mainframes and mobile phones.
IDC's latest report predicts that global AR/VR equipment shipments will reach 68.9 million units in 2022, and the compound annual growth rate will reach 52.5% in five years. The market will grow in 2018 and equipment shipments will be in the year. It reached 12.4 million units, a year-on-year increase of 48.5%.
The VR industry was once cold
CB Insights data from the technology industry's venture capital tracking agency shows that in 2016, the industry's AR/VR investment reached US$2.061 billion, a surge of 118.1% from 2015's US$945 million. In 2013 and 2014, this type of investment was only $278 million and $825 million, respectively.
A VR product manager from a technology company in Beijing introduced the "hot" of VR from the perspective of professional courses in colleges and universities to 21st century economic reporters. He studied at the University of London College (UCL) computer vision technology and graduated from the school at the time of "VR first year." At that time, VR was one of the three-choice elective courses offered by UCL Computer Graphics. "VR is a branch of computer graphics," he said. "At the time it was a very hot elective, and all the people in the class chose it."
In his view, the iconic event that VR became the "trend" was Facebook's acquisition of VR equipment maker Oculus in 2014. "This leads a wave of trends and brings a lot of business opportunities, but it does have bubbles," he said.
Just after the first year (2016), VR suffered from the halo of the halo. In the first quarter of 2017, global AR/VR investment was only $194 million, a decrease of 82.3% from $10.99 million in the same period in 2016. “There is no doubt that VR suffered setbacks in 2017,†said Tom Mainelli, deputy director of research at IDC AR/VR, a market research firm, in a report.
VR hardware and software platform provider Pico (Beijing Bird Watch Technology Co., Ltd.) interviewed by 21st Century Business Herald, said that due to the early technical capabilities, VR products can not meet commercial needs in a short period of time, this is VR The main reason for rapid cold.
In February 2018, the market research institute Strategy AnalyTIcs, Huawei iLab and the Information and Communication Research Institute of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology conducted research on the development of VR industry at home and abroad. Strategy AnalyTIcs mentioned that almost all of the respondents mentioned the industry's fluctuations in the past two years, but they also agreed that this has a positive impact on the long-term development of the industry - the process of bubble extrusion is also the survival of the fittest, market concentration The process of increasing the degree and speculating the followers gradually.
A number of interviewees pointed out to the 21st Century Business Herald reporter that although the past two years have been two years of retreat, but the key breakthroughs in technology have quietly arrived, with the emergence of emerging technologies such as 5G, the VR industry is full of stamina. Pico pointed out that the VR industry has entered a stable climbing period regardless of hardware shipments, content development and investment and financing performance.
CB Insights predicted in June 2017 that the global VR investment will reach 2.797 billion US dollars, although the growth rate will slow down, but it will still have a significant growth compared with the previous year. The latest data from the industry consultancy Digi-Capital shows that the global AR/VR industry investment exceeded $3 billion in 2017, with a quarterly quarter of $1.5 billion, which exceeded CB Insights' previous forecast.
Technological breakthroughs have prompted the market to pick up
UCL's VR lab displays a wide range of VR "glasses" and somatosensory devices that have been used in research and development since the 1990s. "(Early) is not so much a pair of glasses as a helmet, it is very heavy." The aforementioned VR practitioners said.
The first domestic VR concept-based startup company, èšè§†ç§‘技CEO, told the 21st Century Business Herald that at present, VR products are mostly helmet-shaped, some still need to be connected, uncomfortable to wear and can not be used for a long time. And so on; in addition, users can't move continuously in a large space, which is often the basic element of large VR games.
He believes that the VR industry also needs a disruptive optical solution that allows VR glasses to be close to the size and weight of ordinary glasses and to solve the dizziness of continuous movement in large spaces.
David MacQueen, executive director of global wireless practices at Strategy AnalyTIcs, told 21st Century Business Herald that in the past two years, the VR industry has seen significant technological growth. “First of all, it has a better screen and lighter weight, which also means a more user-friendly experience, and there has been significant progress in control.â€
Pico also believes that in the past two years, whether it is wearing, displaying, interacting or content, VR has experienced a qualitative leap, and in the future, driven by technical elements such as 5G technology, mobile interaction, 8K screen, etc., the experience will be Further improved.
According to the government, one of the "pleasing changes" of VR in the past two years is the development of optical technology. “The industry has introduced the ultra-thin VR optical solution codenamed 'Pancake', and AntVision has just launched the 'DCMO' ultra-thin large-view AR optical solution.†He said, “These all make VR/AR devices in the direction of miniaturization. Steady progress." He expects that ant will achieve the production of AR/VR dual-purpose machine in the form of ordinary sunglasses in 2020.
In addition, reliance on PCs, consoles and smartphones is one of the key breakthroughs in recent VR devices.
Pico believes that VR all-in-one is a product form that is relatively more market-proven and has potential for development. It is the hope that the VR industry will break out in the future. To this end, Pico has launched a multi-machine product such as Goblin and Neo, and will continue to work in this field.
In the view of Zheng Zheng, the emergence of Qualcomm's "Jilong" series of chips played a key role. “('éªé¾™') can achieve an integrated VR helmet form, including inside-out tracking technology.†He said, “After a while, the integrated VR device experience will be close to 2 years ago. Connected to a PC or host) VR experience."
IDC also pointed out in the report that the main reason for the VR market to experience cold in 2017 is the reduction in shipments of screenless devices (to be inserted into mobile phones), but with Facebook's Oculus Go, HTC's Vive Pro, Lenovo's Mirage Solo and Daydream With the launch of new all-in-one equipment and the decline in prices, the VR market will rebound in 2018. In addition, next-generation communication technologies such as 5G have also brought new opportunities. MacQueen said: "The biggest change in (VR) may come from communication technology, which makes wireless, independent VR headsets a reality."
"Better network technology will undoubtedly be one of the core factors driving the VR market. Fully independent VR devices are subject to heat, weight and battery life. If the computing requirements of the VR processor can be uploaded to the cloud, this will overcome "The above challenges," MacQueen said. "However, current Wi-Fi and 4G mobile network technologies are not fast enough, or there is a certain delay, which is not enough to provide a better experience. Other wireless technologies such as 5G can increase the transmission speed. And reduce the delay."
Qi Zheng also believes that 5G will be the communication technology that AR/VR equipment depends on. In addition to being able to popularize real-time high-definition cloud rendering and significantly reduce the need for local computing power, 5G also enables large amounts of data to be transmitted in real time, allowing VR/AR to be used in communications areas that are not yet available.
Pico added that in addition to the operation and application of the liberation helmet, the transmission speed of 5G can liberate users, so that users can enjoy the independent private space brought by VR and the entertainment of games and games in any place while ensuring privacy.
In addition, in MacQueen's view, if VR wants to enter the mass market, the input mechanism and UI of its device are also crucial. "Using game-based controllers is not a problem for a specific user community, but it is not very suitable for the mass market. More natural input mechanisms, such as using sensors to capture gestures and trajectories, will help VR break through the game. Content restrictions, into the more popular market."
US investment is most followed by China
According to CB Insights data, from 2013 to mid-2017, the United States accounted for 61% of the global AR/VR industry investment, becoming a well-deserved leader, with China, the United Kingdom, Canada and France at 7% and 5% respectively. The 3% and 3% share is closely followed.
At the vendor level, according to MacQueen, Sony, HTC, Microsoft, Samsung and Facebook's Oculus are currently in the leading position in the VR field. Although the development strategy is different, the content is the key factor determining their ecology.
For high-end VR devices, Sony currently focuses on PS host VR. Relying on its host ecosystem, Sony VR can achieve access to top-level content, but its closed host ecosystem also means that the capacity of VR content is bound to be limited; and HTC has successfully developed a PC-based ecosystem. High-end market, but it is also facing Microsoft's challenge; as for Microsoft, it does not engage in VR device production, but provides tools and ecology to its PC vendor partners (Dell, Samsung, Asus, etc.).
In the low-end VR market, Samsung Gear VR is the market leader with the combination of its smartphone and screenless VR devices. In addition, Samsung has also cooperated with Oculus on content. "But now, Oculus has released its competitive low-end VR equipment, the international version is Oculus Go, and in China it is 'millet VR all-in-one', but both are from Xiaomi Responsible for production," MacQueen said.
MacQueen believes that although the bottom-end market still has the existence of Google Cardboard, its popularity is declining. "It has played an active role in the VR industry, allowing customers to try VR at a low or free price. But now, users, vendors and content providers have already targeted a better VR experience." .
Content will be the key
In addition to technology, another key element in the development of the VR industry is content.
In MacQueen's view, the development of the VR market relies heavily on the quality and quantity of content. At present, China and the United States can become the top two VR markets. “Local and international content producers in both markets have embraced VR, including games, TV and movies, and the UGC website,†he said.
According to Pico, the current lack of good content is still a problem faced by VR industry. The company said that as capital gradually calms down, the current plaguing of most VR content teams is the difficulty of financing, slow financing, lack of capital support and industry concerns.
“In the face of rapidly changing markets and demands, the power of a single company is difficult to achieve rapid iteration and full satisfaction, and it is even more difficult to drive the overall development of the VR industry.†Pico said, “If you can get more capital attention and support, VR The content team will be able to attract more talented people, generate more good content, and get more market opportunities to help the industry form a virtuous circle."
At the application level, the game is still the main direction of VR products. However, Zheng Zheng believes that this is also one of the constraints faced by the VR industry. That is, only this application scenario can only be difficult to develop in accordance with the survival rules of the game console field. "VR also needs to explore other non-game scenarios, and it is best to combine with AR's various imaginations to form a diversified, versatile product that is as rich as a smartphone." .
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