Last Saturday, the National Energy Administration released the national social electricity consumption data for July. The reporter's analysis found that in July, heavy industry electricity consumption increased by 9.7% from the previous month, while the previously announced output chain data of pig iron, crude steel, steel, and cement all declined. Heavy-industry production data and electricity consumption data in July reproduced the “divergence†phenomenon.
Two data reproduction deviation
According to information released by the National Energy Administration, in July, the country’s entire society used 389.6 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity. In June, the country’s entire society used 352 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity, a 10.7% increase from the previous month. Among them, the heavy industry was 243.8 billion kWh, while in June this figure was 222.3 billion kWh, a 9.7% increase from the previous quarter.
The July data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that the data of many industries fell in a ring. Among them, the July crude steel production was 51.74 million tons, the data for June was 53.766 million tons, and the measured chain data decreased by 3.8%; in July, the steel output was 67.67 million tons, and the steel production in June was 71.43 million tons, which was measured on a The data decreased; in July, the cement production was 164.92 million tons; in June, the cement production was 178.483 million tons, and the measured ring data decreased by 5.5%; in addition, the output of natural crude oil showed an upward trend, and the output of natural crude oil in July was 17.22 million tons in June. Natural crude oil production was 16.883 million tons, which was estimated to have increased by 2.0% from the previous month.
From the point of view of power generation output, the statistics provided by the Bureau of Statistics indicated that the power generation in July was 377.6 billion kWh, and the power generation in June was 346.66 billion kWh, which was an increase of 8.9% from the previous month.
Experts said that, theoretically, industry data should be unified with electricity consumption data, and this should not happen. The current situation is related to statistical conditions.
According to the reporter’s understanding, the current statistics on the amount of electricity generated and used are different, and the statistics of the Bureau of Statistics are reported by the local statistical office. According to electric power experts, power generation is mainly directly obtained from the power grid, as electricity can intuitively reflect the production situation, and it is straightforward; relevant members of the China Electricity Council (hereinafter referred to as CEC) have told reporters that the national electricity consumption is mainly The CEC conducts statistics, and the data is reported from the local level upwards, followed by comprehensive statistics.
A veteran of the power industry told reporters that when data was released last year, there were several instances of frequent departures between electricity consumption and industrial values. After that, the power grid was asked not to disclose the amount of power generation to the media. The final amount of power generation was unified by the National Bureau of Statistics. It was released, and the electricity consumption of the whole society was released simultaneously by the National Energy Administration and CEC. According to industry sources, the reasons for data asymmetry are analyzed again in light of the above circumstances, and it is not excluded that there will be water injection in statistics. A person in the steel industry stated that in order to complete the production and sales tasks in various months of the year, there is a possibility that some plants may falsely report data.
Lin Boqiang, director of the China Energy Research Center at Xiamen University, analyzed that judging from July's data, heavy industry was 243.8 billion kilowatt-hours, which still accounted for a large proportion of electricity consumption in the country, despite the statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics. A slump in the industry may have contributed to the vacancy in other energy-consuming industries. Lin Boqiang said that according to estimates, at the current stage of development in our country, the annual electricity consumption and GDP ratio is still 1:1.
Heavy industry slipped to its lowest point in August?
Economists differ in their views on the economic situation. Li Xunlei, chief economist of Guotai Junan, believes that the economy's economic comparison is relatively straightforward. It is expected that in August, China will increase its reserve requirement ratio three times, implement energy-saving emission reductions, and adjust the structure of overcapacity industries, as well as restrictions on investment. China is expected to be China in August. The lowest point of economic ring value.
Lin Boqiang said that from the data of this month, the industry data shows the signs of economic downturn, but it still needs to look at 2 to 3 months of data to determine the direction of the economy. Hu Zhaoguang, deputy dean of the State Grid Energy Research Institute, believes that after experiencing rapid growth in the first half of the year, the current investment effect has declined, and relatively low-speed development is still normal. Hu Zhaoguang even believes that in the second half of the year, a lower growth rate of electricity and even negative growth in some places is normal.
Li Xunlei believes that August will also be the industry's low point of the month-on-month decline in the previous month. Li Xunlei's judgment is based on two aspects. On the one hand, he believes that macro-control policies may shift; on the other hand, the industry has fallen to the lowest point in 2008.
Judging from the current situation, the steel industry began to show negative growth. The decline in crude steel production once again approached the historical low point in 2008, and steel stocks continued to decline in May. All indications indicate that the industry has bottomed out. Infrastructural construction in Xinjiang and other places will still pull cement, steel and other industries.
Two data reproduction deviation
According to information released by the National Energy Administration, in July, the country’s entire society used 389.6 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity. In June, the country’s entire society used 352 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity, a 10.7% increase from the previous month. Among them, the heavy industry was 243.8 billion kWh, while in June this figure was 222.3 billion kWh, a 9.7% increase from the previous quarter.
The July data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that the data of many industries fell in a ring. Among them, the July crude steel production was 51.74 million tons, the data for June was 53.766 million tons, and the measured chain data decreased by 3.8%; in July, the steel output was 67.67 million tons, and the steel production in June was 71.43 million tons, which was measured on a The data decreased; in July, the cement production was 164.92 million tons; in June, the cement production was 178.483 million tons, and the measured ring data decreased by 5.5%; in addition, the output of natural crude oil showed an upward trend, and the output of natural crude oil in July was 17.22 million tons in June. Natural crude oil production was 16.883 million tons, which was estimated to have increased by 2.0% from the previous month.
From the point of view of power generation output, the statistics provided by the Bureau of Statistics indicated that the power generation in July was 377.6 billion kWh, and the power generation in June was 346.66 billion kWh, which was an increase of 8.9% from the previous month.
Experts said that, theoretically, industry data should be unified with electricity consumption data, and this should not happen. The current situation is related to statistical conditions.
According to the reporter’s understanding, the current statistics on the amount of electricity generated and used are different, and the statistics of the Bureau of Statistics are reported by the local statistical office. According to electric power experts, power generation is mainly directly obtained from the power grid, as electricity can intuitively reflect the production situation, and it is straightforward; relevant members of the China Electricity Council (hereinafter referred to as CEC) have told reporters that the national electricity consumption is mainly The CEC conducts statistics, and the data is reported from the local level upwards, followed by comprehensive statistics.
A veteran of the power industry told reporters that when data was released last year, there were several instances of frequent departures between electricity consumption and industrial values. After that, the power grid was asked not to disclose the amount of power generation to the media. The final amount of power generation was unified by the National Bureau of Statistics. It was released, and the electricity consumption of the whole society was released simultaneously by the National Energy Administration and CEC. According to industry sources, the reasons for data asymmetry are analyzed again in light of the above circumstances, and it is not excluded that there will be water injection in statistics. A person in the steel industry stated that in order to complete the production and sales tasks in various months of the year, there is a possibility that some plants may falsely report data.
Lin Boqiang, director of the China Energy Research Center at Xiamen University, analyzed that judging from July's data, heavy industry was 243.8 billion kilowatt-hours, which still accounted for a large proportion of electricity consumption in the country, despite the statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics. A slump in the industry may have contributed to the vacancy in other energy-consuming industries. Lin Boqiang said that according to estimates, at the current stage of development in our country, the annual electricity consumption and GDP ratio is still 1:1.
Heavy industry slipped to its lowest point in August?
Economists differ in their views on the economic situation. Li Xunlei, chief economist of Guotai Junan, believes that the economy's economic comparison is relatively straightforward. It is expected that in August, China will increase its reserve requirement ratio three times, implement energy-saving emission reductions, and adjust the structure of overcapacity industries, as well as restrictions on investment. China is expected to be China in August. The lowest point of economic ring value.
Lin Boqiang said that from the data of this month, the industry data shows the signs of economic downturn, but it still needs to look at 2 to 3 months of data to determine the direction of the economy. Hu Zhaoguang, deputy dean of the State Grid Energy Research Institute, believes that after experiencing rapid growth in the first half of the year, the current investment effect has declined, and relatively low-speed development is still normal. Hu Zhaoguang even believes that in the second half of the year, a lower growth rate of electricity and even negative growth in some places is normal.
Li Xunlei believes that August will also be the industry's low point of the month-on-month decline in the previous month. Li Xunlei's judgment is based on two aspects. On the one hand, he believes that macro-control policies may shift; on the other hand, the industry has fallen to the lowest point in 2008.
Judging from the current situation, the steel industry began to show negative growth. The decline in crude steel production once again approached the historical low point in 2008, and steel stocks continued to decline in May. All indications indicate that the industry has bottomed out. Infrastructural construction in Xinjiang and other places will still pull cement, steel and other industries.
Mtu Generator Set,Diesel Power Generator,Diesel Engine Generator,Silent Diesel Generator
Yangzhou Hengyuan Electromechanical Equipment Co., Ltd. , https://www.lchygeneratorset.com