Wind power market outlook for the second quarter of 2017: Ten-year forecast for the new capacity of global wind power is increased by 10.8 GW, and will increase the forecasted capacity by 60% within the next five years.
On June 7, Danish renewable energy consultancy MAKE issued the “2017 Second Quarter Wind Power Market Outlook Report†(hereinafter referred to as the “Reportâ€), focusing on the market development of the global and national and regional markets in the next decade. prediction.
Western OEMs have continuously increased their attention to emerging markets in the Asia-Pacific region. Most of them signed conditional orders or confirmed orders, and recent market forecasts are better. The markets in China, Germany, France, the Netherlands, and the United States will become the top five markets for new capacity for renovation projects in the next five years. The United States' "80-20 Fan Renovation Law" will become the main driving force for the development of the U.S. market.
Chinese market
In 2017, China's newly installed lifting capacity is less than 20GW
In the wind power market in China, the report lowered the expected capacity of newly installed lifting and grid-connected power in 2017 to below 20 GW, which was a decrease of 400 MW and 1 GW respectively from the forecasted level in the previous quarter.
As can be seen from the recent market development, the implementation and implementation of the early-warning mechanism has been substantially increased compared with the beginning of 2016, and efforts have been made to rectify the phenomenon of wind curtailment and power restriction that have been designated as red alert provinces. Because most of the provinces with abundant wind resources experienced excessive and disorderly development and construction investment, serious wind curtailment and power curtailment occurred.
On July 18, 2016, the National Energy Administration issued the Notice on Establishing a Monitoring and Early Warning Mechanism to Promote the Sustainable and Sound Development of the Wind Power Industry, aiming to guide the wind power market to maintain rational and sustainable investment. On February 22 this year, the Energy Bureau issued the “Circular on Monitoring and Early Warning Results of 2017 Wind Power Investment Monitoringâ€. The six major provinces including Gansu and Xinjiang have not reached the minimum guaranteed acquisition time for 2016 due to the wind power utilization hours in 2016. It was designated as a red warning zone for wind power development and construction, and was ordered to suspend new approvals and grid connection for the 2017 project. According to the data released by the Energy Bureau, the grid connection capacity in the first quarter of 2017 was only 3.52GW, which was a decrease of 34% compared with the same period of last year.
MAKE expects that there will be no new grid-connected capacity in Gansu and Jilin in 2017. The newly-added grid-connected capacity of Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang and Ningxia provinces will be less than 300 MW. Although the lifting capacity of offshore cranes is forecast to increase by 194 MW, it is still unable to offset the large increase in new capacity in the northwest region. cut back.
In 2017, new lifting capacity in the eastern and southern regions will accelerate development and for the first time surpass the three north regions, with a share of total capacity reaching 60%. More than 70% of new capacity in the three northern regions will be concentrated in Hebei, Shanxi and Shaanxi provinces.
China's offshore wind market continues to develop
The speed of approval and construction of offshore wind power industry in China was further accelerated in 2017. MAKE expects that the Chinese offshore wind market will enter GW-level growth in 2018, one year ahead of the first quarter forecast. The construction of offshore wind projects in Jiangsu Province has been accelerated and the overall construction period has been significantly reduced, which is favorable to the growth of offshore wind power installations in Jiangsu Province in the short term. Among the whole business, Shanghai Electric still occupies the largest market share in the domestic offshore wind power industry and successfully won the first batch of 6MW offshore wind turbines in Fujian Province.
Domestic 2MW Fans Price Decline
From the viewpoint of the stand-alone capacity of the wind turbine orders, the order volume of the 2-2.99MW wind turbine platform reached 80.1% of the total domestic first-quarter orders. At the same time, the market began to adopt the 3MW onshore wind turbine platform. The price of the 2MW wind turbine platform continues to decline. In the past three months, the prices of Western machine manufacturers' 2MW wind turbine platforms have fallen by more than 5%, and Chinese machine manufacturers have not been able to reduce fan prices in different periods in order to increase their market competitiveness.
Supported by the National Energy Administration's early warning mechanism and Hebei Energy's “13th Five-Year Plan†and other policies, in the first three months of the year, more than 53.4% ​​of new orders for wind turbines in the Sanbei region came from Hebei Province, up 38.1% year-on-year. In addition, confirmed orders in the eastern and southern regions increased by 11.8% year-on-year, mainly in eastern regions with higher levels of electricity consumption (Fujian, Shandong, and Jiangsu Provinces).
American market
U.S. and Brazilian markets are affected by policy adjustments
The US market’s new capacity forecast for the next ten years is lowered by 4.5 GW over the first quarter. The decline in clean energy plans caused a decrease in demand for wind power and became a major factor. Domestic taxation policies may be adjusted to affect the development progress of the project. Therefore, investors who invest to obtain tax incentives are currently in a wait-and-see phase, and project construction work has not yet started.
From a global perspective, the decarbonization process is driven by economic considerations above the political impetus. Trump led the United States to withdraw from the "Paris Agreement", causing a loss, but the United States externally and internally developed emission reduction targets and renewable energy development measures will make up for the adverse effects of the above measures. Trump’s announcement of withdrawal will inevitably make other countries more united and hopefully accelerate the achievement of emission reduction targets.
After the Brazilian wind power market cancelled its auction in December 2016, the signing of orders was bleak. Officials recently have not formally announced plans to hold another auction. BNDES announced that adjustments to the benchmark lending rates will lead to increased project financing costs for all sources of power generation.
European market and others
The European market forecast for the next three years will increase year after year
In the next three years, the European market will be the only one that can maintain its forecast for consecutive years of upward adjustment. Only 2019 new capacity forecast will be raised by 4GW, while the upward adjustment region is mainly concentrated in the French, German and Spanish markets. Among them, Germany's first land-based wind power project bidding meeting signed a 807MW project, and the capacity of the FIT-reserved reserve project was thus as high as 8.4 GW. The main demand of the developer for the fan type is concentrated on the fan whose diameter is 126-142 meters and the tower height is 159-165 meters.
The Russian market announced that it will raise the capacity of the forthcoming tender from the original 1.3GW to 1.9GW. The new grid-connected capacity forecast for 2018-2022 is therefore increased by 300MW. However, due to the immature development of the local supply chain market, it is still difficult for developers to meet the local composition requirements and hinder market development enthusiasm.
The favorable policies in southern European and Asia Pacific (other than China) markets will drive the development of regional markets. For example, the Spanish and Indian markets will gradually transform into auction mechanism. As a result, the forecast of new capacity in various countries will increase. The Indian market’s new capacity in the next ten years will even exceed that. Germany, ranking third in the world, is expected to reach 42.1GW. At the auction held in the Spanish market, the auction rules were favorable to wind power developers and therefore 3GW capacity was signed. The forecast for the next decade is 5.5GW, which is expected to achieve the 2020 development target.
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