Although Japan suffered major changes in March 2011, the Japanese PV market continued to grow this year and exceeded the 1GW mark. The growth rate of Japan's photovoltaic market in 2011 was 30%, far lower than the 100% increase in 2009 and 2010. The Chinese market, by virtue of its national electricity price subsidy policy and sufficient supply of photovoltaic modules, exceeds the Japanese market by a factor of two. This year, Japan, like other leading PV market countries, has implemented a genuine FIT policy and expanded its diversified markets outside the residential sector. It can be said that in 2012 Japan has embarked on a path of high growth.
The initial establishment of Japan's domestic photovoltaic market originated from a national policy in the early 1970s that was designed to lead the country out of dependence on imported oil. There is almost no oil and gas reserves in Japan. To cope with the oil embargo, the Japanese government has invested in supporting project research and development and has formulated policies to support the introduction and dissemination of photovoltaic systems. One of the most important plans of the Japanese government is the Residential PV System Dissemination Program, which provides early cash rebates. From 1994 to 2005, the PV project funded by the program has installed more than 930MW, including 250,000 residential photovoltaic systems. At the same time, Japan has also become the dominant market for photovoltaic production and installation in the world.
Twelve years later, the Japanese government believes that its PV market has become self-sufficient and it has terminated its subsidy program for residential solar energy systems. Germany and several other countries have continued to promote the national electricity tariff policy. In 2006, Japan's PV market installed capacity has declined for the first time in history; in 2007 it continued to decline to 230MW; in 2008, it also maintained the same level. As Japan's component manufacturers mainly export component products to Europe with higher profit margins, the shrinking of Japan's PV market is not only due to a lack of incentives, but also due to the scarcity of domestically available components.
In order to prevent the market from shrinking further, the Japanese government reactivated the residential PV subsidy program in January 2009. Since then, Japan's residential PV market has returned strongly.
In addition, in November 2009, the Japanese government launched a NetFIT policy requiring ten power utilities to purchase excess electricity generated by photovoltaic systems at preferential rates. For example, current owners of residential photovoltaic power generation can enjoy a repurchase price of 42 Yen/kWh for ten years, compared to an average of only 20 Yen/kWh for traditional electricity. This policy only stipulates the purchase of surplus electricity from photovoltaic power instead of full power. The main reason for Japan’s implementation of this policy is to encourage energy conservation and limit the subsidy cost shared by all electricity tariff payers.
Many residential PV system owners not only qualify for government subsidies, but also enjoy subsidies for their respective counties, cities, and towns. Since October 2011, a total of 870 local governments have provided photovoltaic support plans including subsidies and loans.
The strength of the photovoltaic market established by Japan based on residential photovoltaic power generation is unique. According to the quarterly PV market research results released by the research organization NPDSolarbuzz in the Asia-Pacific region, Japan's residential solar power field has always had a strong advantage, and in 2011 accounted for 86% of the market share. In addition, with the implementation of a new on-grid tariff plan in July 2012, Japan’s non-residential solar power market will also take off, and the residential solar energy market will gradually decline. Even so, this area will still dominate the domestic PV market demand.
In the past, the Japanese government had given strong pre-cash incentives to the non-residential PV market. The subsidy amount was about 30% to 50% of the installation system cost. However, due to higher installation system costs and lower electricity charges, the growth of the non-residential PV market is far less rapid than that of the residential PV market. By 2011, the government's PV subsidy program no longer applies to non-residential PV projects. In order to compensate for the lack of subsidy policy, the government raised the netFIT tariff from ¥16/kWh in 2010 to RMB40/kWh. As this policy only subsidizes excess photovoltaic power generation, it has also failed to effectively promote the development of the non-residential solar energy market.
In August 2011, the Japanese government passed a complete on-grid tariff bill aimed at accelerating the development of large-scale renewable energy technologies, which will take effect on July 1, 2012. This will subsidize all solar power generation and will be open to photovoltaic systems above 500KW.
This new bill not only exhilarates the declining domestic component manufacturers, but also delights overseas component manufacturers and project developers. Many domestic PV installers have created new non-residential PV departments. Many local governments have also listed land or buildings that can be leased for utility-scale PV projects, thereby promoting local economic development and avoiding power shortages caused by the closure of all nuclear power plants in the country caused by the leakage of the Fukushima nuclear power plant. Many foreign component manufacturers such as Suntech Power, Trina Solar, AT Solar Power and Q-Cells have entered the Japanese market. SunEdison, one of the largest financing and development companies, has also officially launched its business in Japan.
Prior to 2008, all of Japan's photovoltaic market products were supplied by domestic component manufacturers including Sharp, Kyocera, Panasonic (formerly Sanyo), and Mitsubishi Electric. Of the more than 30 non-domestic component manufacturers in Japan, China Suntech Power is also one of them. The company also entered the Japanese market at the time of the resumption of the Japanese residential PV subsidy program. With the re-growth of the domestic market, imported components have occupied a large market share. In 2011, Japan's imported components accounted for nearly 20% of all product supply. Some non-domestic component manufacturers work with well-known retailers or distributors to take full advantage of their brand and cognitive advantages in Japan.
Many corporate entities have high hopes for this new subsidy policy and announced plans to deploy large-scale photovoltaic projects throughout Japan. The Japanese government has stated that the new on-grid tariff will be sufficient to provide a high return on PV investment. As of early February, the Japanese government has not announced new on-grid tariff rates. According to industry speculation, the on-grid tariffs for non-residential PV projects in Japan will be around 38 yen/kWh and the duration will be 15 years.
In the months before the new on-grid tariff policy was implemented, many projects have been shelved due to the uncertainty of electricity prices and policy terms.
Japan needs to replace nuclear power with alternative energy sources. At present, all companies are busy financing, obtaining components and land permits, and they are all ready to go. The only missing factor is the "correct" price of electricity, which can either succeed or destroy the future of Japan's photovoltaic market.
The initial establishment of Japan's domestic photovoltaic market originated from a national policy in the early 1970s that was designed to lead the country out of dependence on imported oil. There is almost no oil and gas reserves in Japan. To cope with the oil embargo, the Japanese government has invested in supporting project research and development and has formulated policies to support the introduction and dissemination of photovoltaic systems. One of the most important plans of the Japanese government is the Residential PV System Dissemination Program, which provides early cash rebates. From 1994 to 2005, the PV project funded by the program has installed more than 930MW, including 250,000 residential photovoltaic systems. At the same time, Japan has also become the dominant market for photovoltaic production and installation in the world.
Twelve years later, the Japanese government believes that its PV market has become self-sufficient and it has terminated its subsidy program for residential solar energy systems. Germany and several other countries have continued to promote the national electricity tariff policy. In 2006, Japan's PV market installed capacity has declined for the first time in history; in 2007 it continued to decline to 230MW; in 2008, it also maintained the same level. As Japan's component manufacturers mainly export component products to Europe with higher profit margins, the shrinking of Japan's PV market is not only due to a lack of incentives, but also due to the scarcity of domestically available components.
In order to prevent the market from shrinking further, the Japanese government reactivated the residential PV subsidy program in January 2009. Since then, Japan's residential PV market has returned strongly.
In addition, in November 2009, the Japanese government launched a NetFIT policy requiring ten power utilities to purchase excess electricity generated by photovoltaic systems at preferential rates. For example, current owners of residential photovoltaic power generation can enjoy a repurchase price of 42 Yen/kWh for ten years, compared to an average of only 20 Yen/kWh for traditional electricity. This policy only stipulates the purchase of surplus electricity from photovoltaic power instead of full power. The main reason for Japan’s implementation of this policy is to encourage energy conservation and limit the subsidy cost shared by all electricity tariff payers.
Many residential PV system owners not only qualify for government subsidies, but also enjoy subsidies for their respective counties, cities, and towns. Since October 2011, a total of 870 local governments have provided photovoltaic support plans including subsidies and loans.
The strength of the photovoltaic market established by Japan based on residential photovoltaic power generation is unique. According to the quarterly PV market research results released by the research organization NPDSolarbuzz in the Asia-Pacific region, Japan's residential solar power field has always had a strong advantage, and in 2011 accounted for 86% of the market share. In addition, with the implementation of a new on-grid tariff plan in July 2012, Japan’s non-residential solar power market will also take off, and the residential solar energy market will gradually decline. Even so, this area will still dominate the domestic PV market demand.
In the past, the Japanese government had given strong pre-cash incentives to the non-residential PV market. The subsidy amount was about 30% to 50% of the installation system cost. However, due to higher installation system costs and lower electricity charges, the growth of the non-residential PV market is far less rapid than that of the residential PV market. By 2011, the government's PV subsidy program no longer applies to non-residential PV projects. In order to compensate for the lack of subsidy policy, the government raised the netFIT tariff from ¥16/kWh in 2010 to RMB40/kWh. As this policy only subsidizes excess photovoltaic power generation, it has also failed to effectively promote the development of the non-residential solar energy market.
In August 2011, the Japanese government passed a complete on-grid tariff bill aimed at accelerating the development of large-scale renewable energy technologies, which will take effect on July 1, 2012. This will subsidize all solar power generation and will be open to photovoltaic systems above 500KW.
This new bill not only exhilarates the declining domestic component manufacturers, but also delights overseas component manufacturers and project developers. Many domestic PV installers have created new non-residential PV departments. Many local governments have also listed land or buildings that can be leased for utility-scale PV projects, thereby promoting local economic development and avoiding power shortages caused by the closure of all nuclear power plants in the country caused by the leakage of the Fukushima nuclear power plant. Many foreign component manufacturers such as Suntech Power, Trina Solar, AT Solar Power and Q-Cells have entered the Japanese market. SunEdison, one of the largest financing and development companies, has also officially launched its business in Japan.
Prior to 2008, all of Japan's photovoltaic market products were supplied by domestic component manufacturers including Sharp, Kyocera, Panasonic (formerly Sanyo), and Mitsubishi Electric. Of the more than 30 non-domestic component manufacturers in Japan, China Suntech Power is also one of them. The company also entered the Japanese market at the time of the resumption of the Japanese residential PV subsidy program. With the re-growth of the domestic market, imported components have occupied a large market share. In 2011, Japan's imported components accounted for nearly 20% of all product supply. Some non-domestic component manufacturers work with well-known retailers or distributors to take full advantage of their brand and cognitive advantages in Japan.
Many corporate entities have high hopes for this new subsidy policy and announced plans to deploy large-scale photovoltaic projects throughout Japan. The Japanese government has stated that the new on-grid tariff will be sufficient to provide a high return on PV investment. As of early February, the Japanese government has not announced new on-grid tariff rates. According to industry speculation, the on-grid tariffs for non-residential PV projects in Japan will be around 38 yen/kWh and the duration will be 15 years.
In the months before the new on-grid tariff policy was implemented, many projects have been shelved due to the uncertainty of electricity prices and policy terms.
Japan needs to replace nuclear power with alternative energy sources. At present, all companies are busy financing, obtaining components and land permits, and they are all ready to go. The only missing factor is the "correct" price of electricity, which can either succeed or destroy the future of Japan's photovoltaic market.
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