New year, new start. Qing Qingjun gave 10 major points of view to the new energy automobile market in 2018 for readers.
1.2018 new energy car sales may exceed 1.2 million!
In 2017, China led the market with nearly 800,000 new energy vehicles. Throughout the autumn, all media and coffee giants raised their market forecasts for 2018, basically in the form of 100-1.1 million vehicles. The Qing Dynasty gave sales forecasts. This is 1.2 million vehicles, briefly analyzed as follows:
A. In January 2018, the market performed strongly and ushered in a good start. On February 9, 2018, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers held a January 2018 auto production and sales data conference. In the new energy vehicle segment, production and sales in January were 40,569 and 38,470, respectively, which represented a year-on-year growth of 460% and 430.9% respectively;
B. The players of New Energy Vehicles have made many efforts to finally get on this high-speed train. The safest way is to speed up the process.
2. With the listing of CATL, the power market has ushered in a super power situation.
CATL introduces capital market forces to help development, and more importantly, we can look at its customers' circle of friends.
Unlike Matsushita, which is mainly tied to Tesla, a new energy electric vehicle, it is different from cats and dogs. CATL is typically a "mother-to-woman" marriage. The rise of CATL is very legendary. After the supply of batteries to BMW, the company successfully took the lead in Asia’s largest passenger bus Yutong for two years (2014 to 2016) and rapidly reborn, coupled with the rapid development of new energy vehicles in China. With policy subsidy support, it is easy to find people who are both good and good at the same time. In just a few years, they can compete with BYD and decisively surpass them in 2017.
According to incomplete statistics, CATL has cooperated with more than forty car companies, including BMW Brilliance, Beijing Automotive, Guangzhou Automobile, SAIC, Geely, Dongfeng, Great Wall, FAW, and Chang'an. It can be said that it has occupied more than half of China's new energy vehicles. The advantage of the home field is quite obvious; in the passenger car market, Yutong, Jinlong, etc. have almost finished the domestic bus master car factory. And with some car companies not only power battery supply relationship, following SAIC Group CATL, Dongfeng Motor, Changan Automobile also directly or indirectly access shares CATL. In the six state-owned automobile groups, CATL has already gathered three; in terms of international deployment, CATL has long started supplying batteries to foreign companies such as BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Volkswagen. At present, CATL has become a hot star in the automotive industry. In the first eight months of 2017, CATL's power battery supply accounted for 43.2% of the market share, which can be described as "a single largest company." In the first eight months of power battery capacity, CATL also topped the list, and became the only company with installed capacity of over 3,000 MWh.
Although BYD is also opening up its power battery market, Ching Ching-jun thinks this decision will be at least 6-12 months late. The biggest breakthrough is how deep the cooperation between BYD and Guoxuan Hi-Tech can be.
3. Is Tesla entering China and whether it is a wholly-owned model?
On October 26, 2017, at the regular press conference of the Ministry of Commerce, the spokesman of the Ministry of Commerce confirmed at the peak that Tesla is currently communicating with relevant departments in Shanghai. "China always welcomes high-tech, energy conservation and environmental protection, emerging industries and other areas of investment."
The opening up of foreign investment in manufacturing and the reduction of automobile import tariffs are two policies that are related to the development of China's auto industry, especially the new energy auto industry. They should be introduced soon. This move also opens up the window of policy for Tesla's domestic production.
Now the biggest suspense: will the project be settled in Shanghai in 2018?
4. Will the new energy vehicle production qualification restart?
When will the electric vehicle production qualification review be restarted? Before answering this question, it is necessary to make clear what kind of electric vehicle production companies China wants. Judging from the direction of the policy, subsidies for new energy vehicles will all be withdrawn in 2020, and starting in 2019, electric vehicles of joint venture brands will be launched in large numbers. The final window of domestic new energy vehicles will be in 2020. If you do not get tickets as soon as possible during the three years of 2018-2020, you will lose your advantage in the future. This suspension of approval has positive significance for the development of the industry.
However, with companies such as Weilai Automobile, Xiaopeng Automobile, electric coffee car, car and home, “borrowing and giving birthâ€, Qingqing Jun believes that whether or not new energy vehicle production qualifications are restarted is more symbolic.
5. Who will become the harvester of 2018 in the development of new energy automobile industry in local government?
It seems that there is no doubt that the Changzhou government will lead the introduction of the new energy automobile industry in 2017. With the rise of Huzhou and Zhangzhou, what will be the harvester in 2018? Anyway, Qingqing Jun thinks Suzhou is definitely not!
6. The "barbarians" outside the new energy automobile industry will play a greater role in the carp.
The “barbarians†here have no derogatory meaning and refer to the big names who are influential in the business community and the capital community. They are very good at taking advantage of industrial policies and laying out and setting up new energy cars on the board. These amnesties, with huge resources in hand, span multiple fields, and they have not moved yet, and the movement is thunderous and overwhelming, and it is necessary to achieve their own strategic goals. For instance, Zhu Gongshan of the GCL Group and Yao boss of the Baoneng Group can certainly not rule out the topic of “Miss Dongâ€. Wang Qingqing is more optimistic that they will play a greater role in the new energy car market. After all, there is no comparison with the traditional car companies. Historical baggage, equivalent to the average emerging car company has more strength.
The other category is the reformers of traditional car companies, such as the Sujin River of Guojin Auto, which is also worthy of attention. Specifically, we can understand the product and the speed of development in the industry.
7. In 2018, new energy motor electronic control market competition is more intense?
After experiencing an increase in market competition in 2017, it is bound to become more intense in 2018. In particular, an independent third-party motor control company may have achieved some kind of alliance with the OEM.
8. Will the domestic EV alliance be ready in early 2018?
With the revival of the "national team" of Japan's EV alliance, will the domestic EV alliance emerge in 2018? Looking at the overall situation, the new energy auto industry is like a high-speed train that runs through tunnels. The light is not far away. Only when the speeding high-speed rails quickly saw the light and broke through the horizon, it still required the efforts of spectators. Perhaps the industry alliance will be her accelerator!
9. Power battery recycling 2018 new outlet?
Judging from the country’s recent policy on battery recycling, as of December 1, 2016, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the “Interim Measures for the Management of Recycling and Utilization of Power Battery for New Energy Vehicles†to solicit public opinions, encouraging automobile manufacturers, battery manufacturers, recycling and dismantling. Enterprises and comprehensive utilization companies jointly build a shared recycling network of waste power batteries. On November 14, 2017, the Department of Energy Conservation and Comprehensive Utilization of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the "National Catalogue of Major Environmental Protection Technology Equipment Encouraged for Development (2017 Edition)" (Draft for Comment), a total of 140 projects were shortlisted, including automated dismantling of waste power batteries. Equipment and waste batteries (including nickel-cobalt-manganese) resource recycling equipment. The “Regulations for the Recycling and Dismantling of Vehicle Power Battery†(hereinafter referred to as “The Dismantling Codeâ€) will be formally implemented starting from December 1, 2017. This is the first national standard for recycling and utilization of power batteries proposed by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. Clearly pointed out that recycling and dismantling enterprises should have relevant qualifications to further ensure the safety, environmental protection, and efficient recycling of power batteries. From February 1, 2018, the new national standard of three power batteries, such as "Recovery and Utilization of Vehicle Power Battery," will be formally implemented. With the establishment of a more complete national standard system, the disordered state of power battery recycling and ladder utilization is expected to change. This indicates that power battery recycling is not a problem, but how to do it!
10. Typical parameters of new energy vehicles in 2018.
From Tesla's model3 main attack market direction, Volkswagen's MEB platform, BAIC New Energy's launch of EU450/ET400 and Geely EV450, etc., the technical parameters of typical pure electric passenger cars after 2018 are as follows:
(1) The cruising range must reach 350km, less than 300km.
(2) The battery capacity is at least 50 KWh, after all, the mileage requirement is placed there;
(3) The quality of Sanpower's warranty is basically the same as that of the vehicle. Here, the Qing Emperor still has to spit it out: Traditional fuel vehicles are generally in 2--4 years or 6-10 million kilometers.
(4) Positive and must support fast charging; after all, everyone is more busy.
(5) Is automatic driving at least L2.5 level?
(6) Of course there are people who are very sensitive to the price, personal understanding of the price of ordinary family cars, more than 200,000 basic game.
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